Northampton can take Toulon's crown

Friday night see's the start of a new chapter in  European rugby as the Heineken Cup is replaced by the European Champions Cup. Heavyweights from across the continent will do battle and aim to wrestle the crown away from two time winners Toulon. 

The defending champions are rightfully the favourites for the competition and should be take very seriously. They have the deepest squad in Europe and one of the most star studded teams ever seen in the game. But without legendary fly-half Jonny Wilkinson to keep the scoreboard ticking there is a chance for teams to upset them. At 11/4 they seem too short to achieve history and win a third consecutive title. 

One side who are primed for a run and Europe's premier competition are the Northampton Saints. Jim Mallinders men narrowly beat Saracens in last seasons Aviva Premiership Final, and now they have reached the top of the domestic game they can finally reach the top of the club game and win the ECC. Their powerful and dynamic pack are a match for anyone in the competition and with the likes of George North and Ben Foden in the back-line they wont have trouble finding the line. 

The group doesn't look the most straightforward with French giants Racing Metro and the unbeaten Ospreys to contend with, but at Franklins Gardens it is hard to see any of these sides being able to cope with the physicality and power of the Saints. The struggles are likely to come on the road with a tough game away at Racing first up, but if they can get something from that they will take a lot of confidence into the rest of the tournament. 

Other names like Leinster (8/1), Clermont (9/1) and Saracens (9/1) will all be there or there abouts, but all these sides have question marks hanging over them. Clermont can never seem to win the big games, Saracens were physically battered in last years final and Leinster have the unenviable task of replacing Brian O'Driscoll. 

That is why I am keen on Northampton's chances, as a team they are now really coming into their prime and I think 7/1 is a fantastic price for such a talented team. 

In the top tryscorer market Toulon winger Drew Mitchell looks way overpriced at 40/1. The former Wallaby is one of the most intelligent wingers in the game and has scored some big tries in big games for the French champions and with the service he is likely to get it is a hard price to ignore. 

Best Bets

Northampton to win the ECC 7/1 (Betfair) 2pt win

Drew Mitchell top tryscorer 40/1 (Ladbrokes) 1pt e/w

Aviva Premiership Round Four Preview

The first three weeks of the season have produced some outstanding rugby with high scoring matches up and down the land, here is my preview of the live matches on Friday and Saturday.

London Welsh v Gloucester (BT Sport Friday 7.45pm)

London Welsh enter round four still searching for their first victory of the season. But I expect that wait to go on against a Gloucester side who will be looking for a big backlash after a home loss to Exeter last week. 

The Cherry and Whites have disappointed so far this season registering just one victory against Sale in week two. Big name signings Richard Hibbard and John Afoa haven't had the impact many had hoped but they have played three very tough packs so far and this week they are in for a much easier ride. With the pack able to provide some front foot ball another summer signing James Hook could star this evening, and he is a great price to score the first try of the game. 

Every fixture involving Welsh has produced 50 points or more and there is no reason to think anything will change this evening. The Exiles defence has been porous to say the least but they showed some good ambition at Bath in week two and can score if given open space. Backing over 6.5 tries in the match makes sense and I'd also recommend backing over 52.5 points in the match. 

Best Bets
James Hook to score first 20/1 (SkyBet) 1pt win
Over 52.5 points 5/6 (Boylesports) 2pt win
Over 6.5 tries 11/10 (Bet365) 2pt win


Northampton v Bath (BT Sport Saturday 3.15pm)

Northampton welcome unbeaten Bath to Franklins Gardens on Saturday after two consecutive away games. Bath demolished 14 man Leicester Tigers 45-0 last week and now sit top of the table. The visitors have made a fast start to all their games so far this season and I would not be surprised to see them score a try to open the game. 

This game is really too close to call in my eyes, Northampton are the reigning champion and are a formidable force at home. But Bath have made an excellent start to the season and I could see them leaving the Midlands with two points, the draw looks an great value bet. Also backing Bath/Draw on the half-time/full-time market at a whopping 66/1 is also great value in a game between two quality sides. 


Best Bets
Draw 25/1 (Bet365) 1pt win
Bath try first scoring play 7/1 (BetVictor) 1pt win
Bath/Draw HT-FT 66/1 (Betfred) 0.5pt win

Aviva Premiership Round Two Preview

After a rip-roaring start the Aviva Premiership enters its second round of action with plenty of exciting match-ups here are my best bets for the weekends games on BT Sport. 

Exeter Chiefs v Leicester Tigers (BT Sport Saturday 3.15pm)

Exeter and Leicester both made promising starts to their campaigns with victories over London Welsh and Newcastle respectively. The Chiefs decimated newly promoted Welsh 52-0, while a Vereniki Goneva hat-trick helped the Tigers to a 36-17 win. 

Leicester have had the upper hand over the Chiefs in recent times with four consecutive victories by an average of 9.25 points. Which makes the Tigers handicap mark of -3 very attractive. Richard Cockerill has brought England trio Antony Allen, Matthew Tait and Geoff Parling back into the side and the power throughout the side may just be too much for the Chiefs to handle. While they were impressive against London Welsh it would be unwise to read too much into that result as the new boys looked well below average. 

Manu Tuilagi opened the scoring in the corresponding fixture last season after just three minutes, and the powerful English centre can make his presence felt again this weekend against the talented but inexperienced duo of Sam Hill and Henry Slade. In a game that I expect to be open it is worth taking a punt on Logovii Munipola to score at anytime, like Tuilagi he scored in this fixture last season and is a nice price to do so again.

Best Bets
Leicester -3 10/11 (Bet365) 3pt win
Manu Tuilagi to score first 14/1 (Paddy Power) 1pt win
Logovii Mulipola to score a try 8/1 (Sky Bet) 1pt win

London Wasps v Northampton Saints (BT Sport Sunday 2.00pm)

Wasps were only denied an opening day victory over by a controversial late try by David Strettle. The replays seemed to suggest that Strettle knocked the ball on whilst scoring, but the TMO awarded the try and Dai Young's side were left frustrated by a 34-28 loss. This weekend they welcome the league champions who were uber impressive in their victory over Gloucester, they showed no signs of early season rust and had the game sewn up just after the interval and ran out 53-6 winners. 

The hosts haven't registered a victory over the Saints since October 2009 losing by an average of 19 points. But the past two games at Adams Park have both been settled by just two points and with this Wasps side rapidly improving this could become a tighter game than many believe. I still expect Northampton to have just too much for the home side but the half-time/full-time market is good value. 

Luther Burrell scored twice on the opening night of the season and looks good value to cross the line again. With Wasps likely to focus a lot of their energy on stopping the gigantic George North, there should be more space in midfield for Burrell to expose. Another player who I fancy to score is Wasps back-row Ashley Johnson, the South African blindside is a player of explosive power and close to the line he is difficult to stop. 

Best Bets 
Northampton HT-FT evens (Coral) 2pt win
Luther Burrell to score first 18/1 (Paddy Power) 1pt win
Ashley Johnson to score a try 9/2 (Betfred) 1pt win

Back Bath for Premiership Glory

This weekend sees the return of domestic Rugby Union as the Aviva Premiership hits our screens, and this season has the potential to be the best in the history of the competition. With nine months of pulsating action, hard hits, scorching tries and gut wrenching tension in store as the major powers try to wrestle the title away from Northampton. Here is my betting guide to the 2014/15 season.

It is likely to be a similar scenario at the top of the table this season to the one we have seen for the last five years. Saracens, Northampton and Leicester will all be strong candidates to take home silverware. They are the powerhouses of English rugby and have the proven pedigree to last the long trip of an Aviva Premiership season. 

But for my money Bath look a great value bet to claim their first premiership title since 1996. Last year they missed out on the play-offs in agonising fashion on the final day of the season. Owner Bruce Craig has once again splashed the cash in an effort to bring the glory days back to the Rec. England prop Henry Thomas has arrived from Sale and full-back Luke Arscott has arrived from the Exeter Chiefs.

But the biggest signing of them all is Rugby League superstar Sam Burgess who will arrive from the NRL in October. Burgess has been smashing down defences in Australia for the past five seasons but has switched to Bath in a bid to help England win the 2015 Rugby World Cup. His sheer size and power aligned with his deft hands and sharp rugby brain will make him a star in union both domestically and internationally. 

Burgess can lead Bath to glory (source www.skysports.com)

He will be joining a team full of other exciting English talent including George Ford, Anthony Watson, Kyle Eastmond and Jonathan Joseph who have all the attributes required to take on the likes of Saracens, Leicester and Northampton. With the disappointment of last season still fresh in the mind and the recruitments made in the off-season I can see Bath being a force to be reckoned with this season. At a juicy 10/1 they are a great value bet to go all the way, for the more cautious of you I'd still advise a top four finish at 11/8.

The top tryscorer market is littered with a number of players who could light up grounds up and down the country. Leicester Tigers back Niki Goneva claimed the award last season with 12 tries and he is currently 7/1 favourite to regain his crown. But with all the talent in the league it is better to look for some larger prices. 

Fijian flyer Asaeli Tikoirotuma was snapped up by Harlequins after spells with the Chiefs and Manawatu in New Zealand. His raw pace and finishing ability will be a real asset to Quins and with Marland Yarde almost certain to be away with England for long periods of the season, Tikoirotuma will feature heavily and could be one of the stars of the season. 

Mark Cueto is one of the greatest players in the history of the Aviva Premiership,his tally of 86 career tries make him the top scorer in the history of the competition. Last season the veteran winger finished the season with eight tries to his name leaving him joint fourth on the list. Despite his age Cueto remains one of the best finishers in the land, and will be a key player for his beloved Sale Sharks and at a big price he could be worth taking an each-way punt on. 

Jonny May is another finisher with a proven record at this level, while it may not have always worked for him with England his predatory instincts at Gloucester have never been in question. Last season he registered nine tries in a team that performed well below its best, but with powerful signings in the pack I expect the Cherry and Whites to have a much better platform to release May and it would be no surprise to see him to top the charts come the end of the season. 

The Premier League is back: Three talking points from the opening weekend

After months of build-up fans across the country were finally put out of their misery as the Premier League returned to our screens this weekend. On the face of it this season promises to be the most open the Premier League has ever seen, with new managers at Chelsea, Manchester City and Manchester United. But in reality the opening weekend of fixtures only confirmed what we knew about the vast majority of teams. 

Arsenal are woefully short of world-class talent

Arsene Wenger under pressure to spend. (Source www.givemesport.com)

It has been another summer of disappointment for Arsenal fans, a raft of of players have left the club at the start of the transfer window. But despite thinning his squad Arsene Wenger has only brought in one player, Yaya Sanogo on a free transfer. The Gunners have been linked with the likes of Gonzalo Higuain, Luis Suarez, Wayne Rooney and Luis Gustavo, and despite all the talk about having money to spend they have  failed to land any of their top targets. The fans frustration was compounded by the 3-1 defeat at the hands of Aston Villa on day one of the season, which highlighted Arsenals lack of world-class talent in every position. With the exception of Jack Wilshere and Santi Cazorla it is hard to find a Gunners player who could break into the teams such as Man City, Chelsea and Man Utd. They lack a powerhouse in midfield to break up the play and protect the back-four. A bid was launched on Monday to land Newcastle's Yohan Cabaye, but is he really the kind of player Arsenal need at this moment in time? I very much doubt it. Wenger has to spend, because for the first time in his reign, Arsenal are in serious danger of being left behind by the rest of the top six clubs.  

Not much has changed at Manchester Utd

Van Persie is still United's key man (Source www.kootation.com)

Much of the off-season has been consumed with talk of the new man in charge at Manchester United. David Moyes has the unenviable task of continuing the unparalleled success United enjoyed under Sir Alex Ferguson. A tough trip away to Swansea was Moyes first assignment, but it looked business as usual with two goals from Robin Van Persie and Danny Welbeck, helping the champions to a comfortable 4-1 victory. There was nothing noticeably different about United's style of play, and why should there be? Moyes doesn't need to reinvent the wheel, after all he has inherited a squad that won the league at a canter last term. He has the best striker in the league with Van Persie, who is the key man to United's chances this season. While the Wayne Rooney situation needs resolving as soon as possible. One criticism would be that they still lack a  world-class operator in midfield, but other than that you would be hard pressed to name an area where they are in need of radical improvement. 

Lukaku scored 17 goals for WBA last season
(Source www.outsideoftheboot.com)

Lukaku could be the answer to Chelsea's problems

Sunday afternoon witnessed the return of the "Special One" to the Premier League as Jose Mourinho took charge of Chelsea for the first time in six years. The Chelsea faithful hailed his return with unrelenting worship for the full 90 minutes, as goals from Oscar and Frank Lampard sealed a straightforward 2-0 victory over newly promoted Hull. One major area of concern for Mourinho is the perceived lack of top-class striker, Fernando Torres ins't the force of old and Demba Ba struggled last season. But Chelsea shouldn't rush into a mega money move for Wayne Rooney, when they have Romelu Lukaku in their squad. The young Belgian striker scored 17 goals on-loan at West Brom last season, and has all the attributes required to be main man at Chelsea. His power and pace are reminiscent of a young Didier Drogba, and with Lampard, Juan Mata, Eden Hazard and Oscar in the team Lukaku will not be short of goal scoring opportunities. Lukaku has the potential to be one of the most devastating strikers in Europe, and it would be fantastic to see Mourinho give him a chance to showcase his talent. 

 

Lions Glory Hinges on Finding the Right Balance

On April 30th 2013, Warren Gatland put months of speculation to an end by revealing the names of the 37 men charged with delivering the British and Irish Lions a series victory for the first time since 1997.

There were no real surprises (apart from the absences of Chris Robshaw and Rory Best) and as expected the core of the squad was dominated by the Six Nations champions Wales. Their 15 man contingent is the biggest in 36 years and is headed by skipper Sam Warburton, who at 24 becomes the youngest Welsh captain in Lions history. Warburton is a player who Gatland holds in high regard, he made him captain for the 2011 Rugby World Cup and the Kiwi clearly believes his leadership qualities are crucial to the Lions quest for glory.

It is worth remembering that during this year’s Six Nations campaign Warburton turned down the chance to lead Wales to concentrate on his own performance, a move which ultimately paid off as Wales claimed their second successive title. So it will be interesting to see if he will be able to handle the pressure and expectation that comes with captaining the British and Irish Lions.

While it is difficult to argue with the makeup of the squad, it does feel as though Gatland has decided to stick with what he knows and what he trusts. This is highlighted by the selection of Dan Lydiate; the flanker was named player of the tournament during the 2012 Six Nations, but has only recently recovered from a serious ankle injury, playing just a handful of games this season.

It seems as though Gatland wants to play a game very similar to the one which has brought him success with Wales - a style built around overpowering the opposition in the forwards, kicking intelligently and using big backs to smash over the gainline.

And while this gameplan has successfully dispatched the best the Northern Hemisphere has to offer, it is has consistently come up short against the Southern Hemisphere powerhouses. In fact, you have to go back to 2008 for the last time Wales notched a win against one of the “big three”, that was a 21-18 victory over Australia. Since then the Wallabies have recorded eight consecutive wins against Wales, including a 3-0 series win last summer.

During this period the other three home unions have all registered wins against Robbie Deans’ side. England have beat the Australians in Sydney and then at Twickenham.  Scotland produced one of the biggest shocks of last season by winning in Newcastle, and Ireland caused the upset of the 2011 World Cup by beating the Wallabies. 

So the bare form suggests that the Lions will once again come up short if they play a game in the mould of Wales. Gatland and his coaching staff have to find a gameplan that doesn’t involve just trying to outmuscle the Australians for 80 minutes.

There is a belief that the Lions have the edge in the forwards and it is an area where the coaches feel they can dominate the Australians. They will look to blow the Wallabies off the park, predominantly in the front-five. The power of Adam Jones and co. will set the platform and tone for the rest of the side. Combining this power with the mobility and handling of players such as Tom Croft, Jamie Heaslip and Justin Tupuric will give the Lions great balance upfront, and also provides the coaches flexibility to change the gameplan at any time in the match.

The selections made in the backs have left Gatland little room for manoeuvre in terms of changing the way the Lions can play. Of the four centres only Brian O’Driscoll brings any sort of craft and subtlety to the midfield. That is why the link between Jonny Sexton and O’Driscoll is so crucial to the success of this tour. Should the Irish legend be unavailable then options outside of Sexton become very limited. The Leinster fly-half will be called upon to create everything for this backline, because sending the big runners at the Australian midfield will only work so many times. Using the likes of Manu Tuilagi and Jamie Roberts as decoy runners may prove just as effective as smashing them over the gainline.

As is always the case this test series will be decided by the finest margins and that is why finding that balance between power and guile is one Warren Gatland and his coaches have to find. Going for the all-power game will give the Lions a terrific platform but it is what the Wallabies are expecting. Conversely playing an open game will suit the hosts who have outstanding counter-attackers in Quade Cooper, Kurtley Beale and James O’Connor.  

For now attention now turns to Hong Kong and the Lions opening game against the Barbarians. This game will give us the first indication of how the class of 2013 will play in their quest to reach the top of Everest and win a Lions test series.

Below is my side for the first test.

My British Lions XV 1^st Test v Australia

1.       Cian Healy

2.       Dylan Hartley

3.       Adam Jones

4.       Paul O’Connell

5.       Alun Wyn-Jones

6.       Tom Croft

7.       Sam Warburton ©

8.       Jamie Heaslip

9.       Mike Phillips

10.   Jonny Sexton

11.   George North

12.   Manu Tuilagi

13.   Brian O’Driscoll

14.   Tommy Bowe

15.   Leigh Halfpenny

Grand Slam Mauling Will Benefit England In The Long Run

England were left frustrated after missing out on
a first Grand Slam in 10 years (Source: http://www.3news.co.nz)

Humiliating. Embarrassing. Men against boys.

On the face of it there is no doubt that Saturdays 27 point defeat at the hands of a resurgent Welsh side, was one of the darkest days in the history of English rugby. Stuart Lancaster's side arrived in Cardiff quietly confident of achieving their first Grand Slam in ten years. They left the Millennium Stadium with their tails firmly between their legs. 

The game was played with amazing intensity and pace for the full 80 minutes. England started boldly and seemed unfazed by the occasion or atmosphere. 

But the inability of the English backs to finish off chances would once again prove costly. Had Manu Tuilagi taken Owen Farrell's pass and waltzed through the enormous hole in the Welsh defence, we may be talking about a different outcome.

He didn't and from the moment that pass went to ground Wales seized the initiative. Justin Tipuric and Sam Warburton dominated the breakdown, starving England of possession and forcing a barrage of penalties. Referee Steve Walsh rightly or wrongly (but we won't get into that) started to ping props Joe Marler and Dan Cole at every scrum. 

Leigh Halfpenny punished every infraction in a faultless kicking display, which has cemented his place as the Lions first choice full-back. Alex Cuthbert did what the English backs were unable to do earlier the game and finished his two opportunities with ease and took the game away from Chris Robshaw's side. 

Wales exposed every area of weakness in the England team, that Lancaster and his coaching team were previously able to cover with stubborn defence and unrelenting commitment. But with the long-term aim of winning the 2015 World Cup in mind, this shattering defeat can serve as a crucial turning point for this relatively young England side. 

Lancaster deserves great praise for lifting the national team out of the doldrums after the horror show during the 2011 World Cup. He has set out a framework and structure which can make England a force come 2015, now he needs to find the players that can turn England into a team that can execute at the highest level.

The loss of Ben Morgan to injury after the Scotland game was a massive blow to England as an attacking force. Morgan's ability to carry and get over the advantage-line makes him a key-cog in the England machine. Watch the Scotland game again and see how many times he breaks the line and puts his side on the front foot. 

Tom Wood was moved into the number eight role and did an admirable job, but Wood's best work is done at blindside flanker where he can influence the ruck, he isn't a ball carrier like Morgan. Lancaster has to find an alternative should Morgan once again be unavailable.

The obvious choice is Wasps bulldozing number eight Billy Vunipola, who probably would have won his first cap against France had he not suffered an ankle injury in the week leading to the game. The 20 year-old has been smashing his way through defences all season and will relish the physical battle with the Argentinian pack on the summer tour. 

Openside flanker is another area where Lancaster may be looking at alternative options. Chris Robshaw is great leader and had an outstanding Six Nations, but he isn't a natural fetcher. With his captain almost certain to be part of Warren Gatland's Lions squad, Lancaster has the opportunity to look more natural opensides such as Worcester's Matt Kvesic and Saracens Will Fraser.

The biggest shake-up however will come in the backs, with Lancaster desperately needing to find some firepower. Billy Twelvetrees started the Six Nations at inside-centre and had an excellent game against Scotland, before performing well in very different conditions in Dublin. His ability to distribute the ball and kick seemed to free up Owen Farrell and the two combined very well. 
Brad Barritt has never let England down and is an essential part of England's defensive system, but I feel his time is nearing an end. Restoring Twelvetrees to the midfield will open up England's attacking options without losing any defensive strength. 

The summer tour of Argentina will also give Lancaster and Mike Catt the chance to see if the likes of Jonny May and Christian Wade can transfer their club form to the international stage. Both May and Wade have been scoring tries for fun in the Aviva Premiership and can shred any defence with their pace. The hard-ground in Argentina provides the perfect chance to find out what these two are made of. Elliot Daly of Wasps and Marland Yarde of London Irish are two other youngsters who are making great strides domestically and provide even more options in the back-three.

While the loss to Wales was a painful one for the players and coaches, we should not forget that this England side produced one of the greatest performances Twickenham has ever seen when they dismantled the All Blacks in December. This loss has not made them a bad side, what it has done is highlight the areas of the game they need to improve if they wish to be consistently winning Grand Slam matches. 
Sweeping changes are not necessary, what Lancaster and his team need to do is refine certain aspects of their game. With that in mind the tour of Argentina is a massive chance for the younger players to force their way into the squad, and one thing we know is that Lancaster won't be afraid to give them a chance.